The Biggest Opportunities and Threats Facing Small Business

The future presents both exciting opportunities and significant challenges for America’s small businesses.

Emerging technologies like generative AI and the continued growth of e-commerce are opening new possibilities for reaching customers, improving efficiency, and expanding into new markets. At the same time, many entrepreneurs remain concerned about rising costs and ongoing economic uncertainty, which could make it more difficult to capitalize on those opportunities.

According to a Small Business Expo Research Desk survey of 121 U.S. small business owners, 49.6% identify technology—including generative AI and e-commerce—as the biggest opportunity for small businesses over the next five years. Meanwhile, 62.0% say rising costs or economic uncertainty represent the greatest long-term threat.

Taken together, the findings suggest that the small business outlook reflects both optimism about innovation and caution about the economic environment in which businesses will need to grow.

Highlights

• 49.6% say generative AI or e-commerce represents the biggest opportunity over the next five years.
• 27.3% identify expanding into new markets or reaching new customers as the greatest opportunity.
• 62.0% say rising costs or economic uncertainty pose the biggest threat to small businesses.
• 33.9% identify rising costs as the single greatest threat.
• 28.1% cite economic uncertainty as their top concern.

Technology Is Becoming a Growth Strategy

When asked what presents the biggest opportunity for small businesses over the next five years, respondents pointed to several different drivers of growth. While no single answer dominated the survey, technology-related opportunities collectively stood out.

Generative AI was selected by 25.6% of respondents, while 24.0% chose e-commerce and digital growth. Combined, nearly half (49.6%) identified technology as the greatest opportunity for small businesses moving forward.

Beyond technology, 27.3% said expanding into new markets or reaching new customers offers the greatest opportunity, followed by local community support (15.7%) and entrepreneurship or innovation (7.4%).

The findings suggest that many business owners increasingly view technology as more than a productivity tool. Instead, AI, digital commerce, and online customer engagement are becoming central components of long-term business strategy and are helping shape the small business outlook for the years ahead.. This aligns with broader research showing that small businesses continue to accelerate investment in digital technologies to improve operations, reach new customers, and remain competitive.¹

Economic Pressures Remain the Biggest Concern

Despite optimism about future growth, respondents expressed even stronger concern about the broader economy.

One-third of business owners (33.9%) identified rising costs as the single biggest threat facing small businesses over the next five years, making it the most common response in the survey.

Another 28.1% selected economic uncertainty.

Combined, 62.0% of respondents pointed to economic pressures as the greatest long-term challenge—substantially more than those who selected technology disruption (18.2%), workforce challenges (12.4%), or competition from large corporations (7.4%).

These results suggest that many entrepreneurs remain focused on managing expenses and navigating an unpredictable business environment, even as they invest in future growth. National surveys have similarly found that inflation, financing costs, and economic uncertainty continue to rank among the leading concerns for America’s small businesses.²

Growth and Risk Are Closely Connected

One of the most interesting themes to emerge from the survey is that optimism and concern are not mutually exclusive.

Business owners appear eager to embrace technologies that can help them grow, yet many also recognize that economic conditions may determine how successfully they can implement those strategies.

For example, investing in AI tools, expanding e-commerce capabilities, or entering new markets often requires additional spending on software, marketing, training, or infrastructure. Rising costs and economic uncertainty can make those investments more difficult, particularly for smaller firms operating with limited resources.

Rather than choosing between growth and caution, many entrepreneurs may be balancing both at the same time—looking for ways to modernize their businesses while carefully managing financial risk.

The Small Business Outlook for the Next Five Years

Although respondents identified different opportunities, the survey points to a common theme: adaptability.

Whether through adopting AI, strengthening online sales channels, or pursuing new customers, many business owners appear focused on positioning themselves for long-term growth. At the same time, the prominence of rising costs and economic uncertainty suggests that financial resilience remains just as important as innovation.

Businesses that successfully combine technology investments with disciplined financial management may be better equipped to navigate whatever the next five years bring.

Final Takeaway

Overall, the survey suggests the small business outlook is defined by a balance of optimism and caution. While many owners see technology creating new opportunities for growth, economic pressures continue to shape how confidently they can pursue them.

For small business owners, the message is clear: the next five years may offer tremendous opportunities, but realizing them will likely depend on the ability to embrace innovation while remaining resilient in an uncertain economy.

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