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Small business investment decisions are becoming more complex in 2026, as rising confidence collides with ongoing uncertainty.
New data from the Small Business Expo Research Desk (n=373) shows a clear shift: a majority of small businesses report being more willing to take risks than last year. At the same time, one in three remain unsure about making a major investment, highlighting a growing gap between mindset and action.
As businesses navigate cost pressures, demand uncertainty, and evolving market conditions, this tension between confidence and hesitation is becoming a defining feature of small business strategy in 2026.
Highlights
- 56.6% of small businesses are more willing to take risks than last year
- 57.2% say they are likely to make a major investment
- 33.3% are unsure about investing
- Only 9.5% are unlikely to invest
Risk Appetite Is Rising Across Small Businesses
The data points to a broad increase in risk tolerance.
A combined 56.6% of respondents say they are more willing to take risks than last year, including more than a quarter who report being much more willing. Only a small minority indicate increased caution, while nearly one-third say their approach to risk has not changed.
This shift suggests that many small businesses are adapting to ongoing economic uncertainty and becoming more comfortable operating in a less predictable environment. Rather than pulling back, a majority appear open to pursuing growth opportunities and exploring new initiatives.
This trend is consistent with broader sentiment data indicating that small businesses, while still facing challenges, are maintaining a generally forward-looking outlook.¹
Small Business Investment Plans Reflect Uncertainty
Despite rising confidence, small business investment intentions are more divided.
While 57.2% of respondents say they are likely to make a major investment, the most striking figure is that 33.3% are unsure—making uncertainty the single largest individual response category.
This distinction is important. It suggests that many businesses are not rejecting investment outright, but are instead delaying decisions as they evaluate conditions more closely.
In practice, this can result in longer planning cycles, incremental investments, and a greater emphasis on flexibility. Deloitte research similarly shows that businesses often temper optimism with caution, especially when future conditions remain unclear.²
A Growing Gap Between Confidence and Commitment
Taken together, the data reveals a clear disconnect.
On one hand, small businesses are becoming more comfortable taking risks. On the other, a significant share have not yet committed to acting on that confidence through investment.
This creates a dynamic where businesses are psychologically prepared for growth, but operationally cautious.
That gap matters. Investment decisions are a key driver of expansion, hiring, and innovation. When a large share of businesses remain undecided, it can slow the pace of overall economic activity—even in an environment where confidence is improving.
The “1 in 3” Segment May Be the Most Important
The most influential group in this data may be the one highlighted in the headline: the one-third of small businesses that are unsure about investing.
These businesses are not pulling back, but they are also not fully leaning in. Instead, they appear to be taking a measured, wait-and-see approach—monitoring demand, watching costs, and looking for clearer signals before committing capital.
This group represents a significant portion of the market, and its behavior could shape broader trends. According to McKinsey, companies often prioritize flexibility during periods of uncertainty, delaying major investments until risks become more manageable.³
If even a portion of this segment shifts toward action, it could accelerate growth. If hesitation persists, it may continue to dampen momentum.
What This Means for Small Business Strategy
For small businesses, the current environment presents a balance between opportunity and restraint.
Rising risk tolerance suggests that many are ready to pursue growth. However, the large “unsure” segment indicates that execution may be more gradual and conditional.
In this context, businesses may benefit from maintaining flexibility—phasing investments, testing initiatives before scaling, and closely tracking market signals. Strategic patience, rather than aggressive expansion, may define decision-making in the near term.
For partners and service providers, this also signals that demand may be present but delayed. Supporting businesses through longer decision cycles and offering adaptable solutions could be critical.
Final Takeaway
The data highlights a defining dynamic for 2026:
Small businesses are increasingly willing to take risks—but many are still unsure when it comes to investing.
With 57% more open to risk but 1 in 3 still undecided, the small business landscape is marked by cautious optimism.
The path forward will likely depend not just on confidence, but on when—and how—businesses move from consideration to action.
Footnotes
- National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Small Business Economic Trends Report. https://www.nfib.com
- Deloitte. Economic Outlook and Business Investment Trends. https://www2.deloitte.com
- McKinsey & Company. Investment Behavior in Uncertain Economic Conditions. https://www.mckinsey.com
Related: 1 in 3 Small Businesses Struggle With Technology Change